BANGKOK — Thailand's main opposition figurehead is hopeful his election-winning Move Forward party will survive an upcoming dissolution case, but warned of the impact of another investigation that could leave the popular progressive outfit decimated.
Pita Limjaroenrat, who led the Move Forward to victory in last year's election but was blocked from taking power by army-appointed lawmakers, said Thailand's conservative establishment was once again flexing its muscle to contain popular leaders.
"This is the fifth vicious cycle in 20 years. It's been a way that the conservative elites have found a way to keep elected officials at bay," Pita told Reuters in an interview in an office at parliament, amid the din of lawmakers debating in its chambers.
"It's almost like an old record playing the same song over and over again."
Thailand's politics has been defined by a relentless two-decade struggle between its conservative-royalist establishment, backed by the military, and popular political parties, including Move Forward.
In January, the Constitutional Court ruled Move Forward's plan to amend a law against royal insults that protects the monarchy from criticism was a hidden effort to undermine the crown and ordered it to drop its campaign.
The party now faces potential dissolution by the same court over the same issue, in a case brought by the election commission, with a verdict due on Aug 7. Move Forward denies wrongdoing.
"We found that the complaint process (conducted by the election commission) was legally flawed," Pita said, repeating arguments that the party has said it submitted in writing to the court.
In this case, the court conducted proceedings behind closed doors and invited written submissions from both sides.
"I still believe in judicial fairness and judicial consistency," Pita said, arguing that a similar complaint considered by the court more than a decade ago was rejected.
Pita remains Thailand's most popular prime ministerial choice, polling at 46per cent in a survey last month ahead of premier Srettha Thavisin who was backed by only 13per cent of respondents.
The 43-year-old Harvard-educated politician said his party faces another major challenge from a complaint submitted by conservative activists to the National Anti-Corruption Commission.
The commission hasn't publicly commented on whether or when it will submit the case to a court.
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It could result in lifetime political bans on 44 current and former lawmakers for allegedly breaching ethics in backing the plan to amend the royal insult law, which is among the strictest laws of its kind in the world.
"If we were to be found immoral in our political actions inside the parliament, we will be banned for life," Pita said.
"There's no any other penalty."
That case alone could gravely weaken the progressive movement that has gained nationwide support for its agenda, including ending military conscription and breaking up business monopolies.
"That will be almost like dissolving opposition in Thai democracy," Pita said.
Four Thai political parties, starting with those backed by former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, have been dissolved in the last two decades.
The most recent was Move Forward's forerunner, Future Forward, which was disbanded in 2020 and had 16 senior members banned from politics for 10 years for receiving a loan from its founder.
"Maybe it's time to stop this vicious cycle," said Pita. "I want to prove to the establishment, and also to the world, that dissolving parties is futile."
But if it were to prevail over the upcoming challenges, Move Forward would dive into its legislative agenda, including a proposed law to open up the US$8.6 billion (S$11.5 billion) alcohol industry, currently controlled by Boon Rawd Brewery and ThaiBev.
Boon Rawd declined to comment, while ThaiBev did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
"We are trying to demonopolise the liquor industry," Pita said, explaining that Thai farmers, such as those growing crops like sugarcane and rice, would benefit from the liberalisation without significantly hurting the market share of incumbents.
"It's a way that we prove that the Thai economy works for the 99per cent and not just the top one per cent."
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